- By Lt. Tim McMillan
Shots Fired! Piecing Together The Vegas Attack.
Now, in light of the fact that I’ve spent my whole life in the Deep South, personally, I am not a fan of country music. My wife and daughter, however, are. In fact, my wife has been telling my daughter they are going to go to see Jason Aldean just as soon as he has a concert close by.
On Sunday, October 1st, when the news started to come out about the Las Vegas shooting, a frightening realization began to sink in, that had we lived closer to Vegas, my wife and daughter almost assuredly would have been there. Equally guaranteed, I would have been at home with our other three kids.
Honestly, I cannot even imagine the fear and anxiety that many people must've felt that night when they found themselves in the very situation I could have easily been in. Frankly, it makes me sick to think about it. The only thing worse is considering the 58 families and friends who will never hear from their loved ones again.
With that said, when it comes to the horrific events that occurred on in Las Vegas October 1st, I am just like everyone else, I too have questions about the shooting.
I believe this to be a horrific tragedy, and no innocent people should ever lose their life like these people did in Las Vegas. I do truly care about trying to understand what happened that night. I say that as a member of the general public and as a police officer who strives to prevent the loss of innocent life.
With all that said, I looked at some of these theories which name specific details of being what is really behind the Las Vegas shooting. Such as the FBI gun running theory, etc. So far, I have been unable to find anything that would substantiate any of these specific theories.
In regards to the whole “FBI gun deal gone wrong,” theory I’ve heard mentioned on the internet, for me, some significant issues don’t hold weight.
If you’re the FBI, you don't set up a major gun deal on the 32nd floor of a major resort and casino. Not when you're in a state that the Federal Government owns 85% of the land.
No real organized criminal operation is going to be like, “Sure let's meet on the 32nd floor of a major casino. It will be great! We will have no control over the situation, no over-watch integrity and it is basically it sounds like a perfect set up for a police sting because we will not have a remote chance at getting away. Then after the deal, we can all haul down 33 assault rifles, a few thousand rounds of ammo, in amongst tons of 100-round magazines. If we hurry, we can make it in time to catch Cirque du Soleil.”
That's not how an organized crime group would work.
However, there are still lingering questions that do not have answers.
For example, I wish I could explain how the security guard went from hero who found the shooter’s hotel room and alerted police, after being shot and successfully turning the active shooter into a barricaded gunman; to the security guard was shot by the six minutes before the mass killing spree started, and wasn’t discovered until police arrived after the shooting had stopped. All in the matter of one week.
I don’t understand how this changes so dramatically. My professional experience tells me that there is no way the Sheriff originally said that the security guard was a hero unless he indeed had been told that to be a fact.
Personally, a part of me just wishes that in the second press conference, when the timeline was changed, the Sheriff apologized about the mix-up then just said due to the very understandable stress, he had been doing some day-drinking when he issued the original press release. It’s Las Vegas, I can deal with that.
I understand when it comes to these horrific events and the loss of life experienced October 1st, this is one of those times when what goes on in Vegas, does not stay in Vegas. In fact, people around the world have pondered and speculated many things about this case.
The absence of information is like a Petri dish for speculation and wide-eyed conspiracy theories. The kind of stuff that makes people come up with all sorts of things and then get angry calling other people “Sheeple.” I’m not entirely sure why some people get so angry when one would question whether or not the shooting was REALLY planned out by George Soros and the Illuminati, while they drank blood from the skulls of bald eagles, then had a roaring game of naked leapfrog, in a dim lit room of some secret clubhouse.
Now, I get it. To some people, me trying to rain on their naked leap frog parade is only more evidence of the conspiracy. Because I’m a part of the government… duh. I get it.
These are the same type of people who once confronted while I was on-duty and demanded that I tell them the truth about President Obama’s plan to invoke Marshal Law, just before he allowed the United Nations to come in and seize control of America (true story). Basically, nothing I say to some people will convince them of anything other than what they want to believe.
For anyone else that might be interested, I have decided to share publicly anything that I have looked into and feel that to a high degree of confidence I can say is accurate. At least based on the information I have.
To be crystal clear, I am not trying to convince anyone of anything. I am merely stating the facts of the best evidence that is available to me. If indeed it was to come out or if I found evidence that supported the FBI, CIA, ISIS, or Las Vegas Metro police were all involved, I would say it. Moreover, I would vehemently publicly condemn them. Of course, this would probably be to my detriment. However, anyone responsible for this tragic loss of life is a criminal and a murder. I bear no distinction with who they are prior to, or after the commission of this crime. They will still be a murder and criminal to me…
Without further ado this is some of the stuff I have come up with:
Were there multiple shooters?
I was able to locate a video and audio recording of the entire shooting. It is the cleanest audio/video record I have discovered thus far. It is also the only video I know of that covers the entire shooting from start to finish.
Based on what I found on the recording, I can say there was never more than one firearm fired at the same type. HOWEVER, I now understand better why so many people that were there that night and who have listened to the audio recording, may indeed think they hear multiple simultaneous guns being fired.
When I download the video, I first ran it through a forensic audio program. The process of reviewing the audio recording involves not only listening to sound recordings but also looking at the audio waveform images.
These visual representations of the audio signals help isolate and separate different sounds that are captured. When it comes to gunshot sound waves they will look very distinct, and resembling pine trees tipped on their sides.
The computer program allowed me to I analyze the two different sounding gunshots that can be heard on the audio.
I was able to measure the first bullet and the last bullet as they were fired and determined how long the gun’s report traveled. I was able to determine that the 5.56 caliber bullets were traveling at a velocity of 910 m/s. The speed of sound is 343 m/s. From the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay, the concert in which the shooter was firing was 1,189 meters away. Therefore, by the time a bullet was reaching the concert venue space, the sound wave associated with that bullet would be traveling roughly two seconds behind it.
One of the things that created the most distortion, in terms of how the shooting sounded, was the fact that the shooter indiscriminately was alternating target priorities. He would fire shallow, roughly 350 meters away; then fire deeper, around 550 meters away. The variability of the weapon being fire at a more distant target would have caused the observable period between shots to manifest over longer periods of reverb. That reverb is one of the most common things I saw in the videos reporting to “prove there was two shooters.” This was especially prevalent in the widely shared “Taxi Driver Video.”
Police have indicated they recovered two different caliber of weapons from Stephen Paddock's hotel room, The bulk of the rifles appear to be .223/5.56 caliber semi-automatic carbine rifles. Additionally, the police said that at least some of the rifles were .308 caliber.
From photographs, it appears that Paddock had his firearms set up in two distinctly different ways.
The rifle pictured on the left, is a semi-automatic Daniel Defense carbine rifle. It has been reported by some media outlets to be a DD4V1, which would make it a 5.56 caliber rifle. Personally, I think it is a Daniel Defense DD5V1 or V2, which would be a .308 caliber weapon. This would make more sense, considering this rifle is outfitted with a scope and bipod. Essentially, this is set-up for stable sniper fire, which would mean the .308 would make sense due to it having a further maximum effective range.
The gun on the right, is a semi-automatic FN 15 Sporting .223 caliber rifle. This is the rifle that would have been used when the shooter that had the "bump-stock" modification that allowed him to fire rapid succession, simulating a fully automatic weapon. You can see the "Slide-Fire" bump-stock attachment on this rifle.
Between these two caliber of rifles, the shooter a maximum effective range of 600 meters with the 5.56 caliber weapon and 800 to 1000 meters with the .308.
Here is an idea of how significant the shooter’s sector of fire was.
In red is the maximum sector of effective fire for the 5.56/.223 caliber rifle. The yellow is the maximum effective range for the .308 caliber rifle.
The first gunshots are fired from one of the rifles that was outfitted strictly for semi-automatic fire, and not the automatic gunfire that was shown in the first videos that were released. In my opinion, these first shots are from a .308 caliber rifle.
On the video I linked, you will hear the first shot at the 3:12 mark. The second at the 3:17 mark. The third shot at the 3:19 mark. These are the first three shots fired.
Some people in the crowd seem to be aware that these are gunshots, because at the 3:38 mark, you will see people start to head for the exit of the concert.
These two first shots appear to be targeted shots, which would support the shooter was using a scope and firing under general marksman tactics, allowing for roughly a 5-second interval to adjust for breathing. The third shot that comes only two seconds later, which means he accelerated his engagement sequence.
Initially, I assumed that the shooter had fired into the crowd and that is why people started to leave after the first three shots.
However, I have since changed my mind, and suspect that these first three shots were intentionally fired at the jet fuel tanks at McCarran International Airport.
I believe the shooter fired the first two shots under his normal engagement sequence. The acceleration of this third shot was out frustration and recognition that he had already drawn attention to himself. I believe his intention was to try to cause the two large fuel tanks to ignite and explode. This would explain why he was firing incendiary rounds at the tanks. It also accounts for the note with the calculations on minutes of accuracy and doping measurements, that was found on the table by police.
The shooter's field of view
Law enforcement has disclosed that the two incendiary rounds did strike the jet fuel tanks.
I hypothesis that third round Paddock fired missed both jet fuel tanks completely. Primarily, this was because it was a sympathetic frustration shot and he was out of engagement sequence. In my opinion, his intent was to start his attack with the two fuel tanks exploding. Had the tanks exploded it would have created a natural line of drift in which concert goers would have inadvertently moved into a closer and tighter sector of fire for the .223/5.56 caliber automatic gun fire.
Ultimately, if my speculation is correct, there is no telling how many more lives may have been lost if the jet fuel tanks had exploded and created the natural line of drift in which I believe the shooter was trying to create.
This is also the first time that I feel like some chinks in the shooter’s armor are beginning to become more clear. Suddenly, Paddock begins to look more like a wealthy homicidal sociopath who did some research and not some elite special operations murder, than he has been made to seem.
At the 3:50 mark of the video you hear the shooter begin to open fire with the .223/5.56 caliber rifle. This when he is firing using a bump-stock at an automatic rate of fire.
This moment on the video provides a good opportunity to demonstrate why people have believed there to be more than one shooter.
At the 3:50-3:52 mark on the video, when he initially begins firing, you are going to hear two “cracking” sounds. Following this, you will hear a series of rapid “thumping” sounds. Here is what you are hearing:
The “cracking” sound comes from the high-velocity bullets breaking the sound barrier. When you hear the “cracking” sounds it means that the barrel of the rifle is pointed in your direction as it is being fired. Essentially, you’re hearing the rounds as they come at you. The “thumping” sound is the actual sound of the round being fired from the gun.
Or for those who would like to get nerdy with me, the “cracking” sound is the bullet passing along at supersonic speed. The “thumping” sound is the hypersonic sonic detonation wave in front of the exothermic reactions of the muzzle ejecta.
If a listener and a shooter are close, you're not going to hear any sonic boom at all. The shock wave will always be out in front of you, so there's nothing for you to hear. Additionally, the report of the gun (nothing to do with the shock wave) would completely drown out the sonic boom if it was there to hear it.
This is a HUGE reason why even people who have shot plenty of guns in their lifetime, will still listen to the audio in this video and assume there were two guns based on the “cracking” and “thumping” sounds.
Essentially, unless you have been shot at by a high caliber rifle or munition, you will have never actually heard these types of sounds before from a gun.
This video has been widely circulated in which the narrator claims to have calculated the audio evidence the demonstrates there was two shooters. First of all audio without video support is meaningless. It cannot be substantiated that the audio being playing is from the Vegas shooting.
Lastly, the moment the narrator claimed that the "cracks" of the bullets breaking the sound barrier was the sound of bullets hitting the pavement, I quite watching this video.
Moreover, the passage of bullets traveling at these rates of speed precedes the gun's report by a significant amount of time. This is what lets one be able to clearly distinguish the two separate sounds--the shock wave “crack”, and the gun going off “thump.” The further away one is from the gunshots the more the delay between the "cracks" and "thumps."
There is a significant clue as to how the shooter is engaging the crowd based on the variability of the “crack” and the “thump” sounds. Basically, the shooter is simply spraying his fire back and forth and is not aiming as he fires.
Now, at the 5:07 mark of the video you will be able to pick up another distinct sound. This is a faint “whizzing” or “buzzing” sound. The person filming this video is very lucky. Probably luckier than he realizes. Because that is the sound of a bullet as it passes through the air in very close proximity. Basically, the few “whizzes” you hear mean that a bullet came dangerously close to the person filming this video.
Additionally, in the audio of this video you can distinguish the fact that indeed, the shooter is using a “bump-fire” modification on the .223/ 5.56 caliber gun. Now, you can hear it throughout the time the shooter is firing at an automatic rate of fire. However, the best place to pick the sound up I think is at the 12:38 mark of the video.
As the shooter is firing at the automatic rate of fire, you might notice the gunfire sounds almost cyclical or as if someone is using a crank to fire the gun. Many people have said that this sounds like the same type of gunfire from a belt-fed 240B machine gun.
What you are hearing has a lot to do with how a bump fire stock functions. Bump-firing is simply the act of using the recoil of a semi-automatic firearm to fire shots in rapid succession. This simulates the ability to fire a fully automatic weapon. Bump fire stocks are gunstocks that are specially designed to enable bump-fire.
Here is how it works: The bump firing process involves bracing the rifle with the non-trigger hand, releasing the grip on the firing hand (leaving the trigger finger in its normal position in front of the trigger), pushing the rifle forward in order to apply pressure on the trigger from the bump-stock modification which keeps a stationary surface on the trigger. During a shot, the firearm will recoil and the trigger will reset as it normally does. The non-trigger hand pulls the firearm away from the body and back to the original position, pressing the trigger against the stationary finger again, thereby firing another round when the trigger is pushed back.
A bump-fire stock can achieve cyclic rates of fire between 400 to 800 rounds per minute.
When I measured the rate of fire based on the audio, I was able to determine the shooter was firing 100 rounds in a 10-second burst, at a cyclic rate of 600 rounds a minute. This means the shooter had at least a 100-round magazine for his weapon. This is consistent with the photographs showing the FN 15 Sporting carbine rifles with 100-round Surefire magazines attached.
What About the Videos have I seen of the Muzzle Flashes coming from the 4th floor of the Mandalay Bay?
Ladies and Gentlemen, I could tell you that it has been widely proven that the alleged muzzle flashes from the 4th floor are actually strobe lights. I could point out to everyone that if you watch any of the videos online it clearly shows these lights are still flashing in light of there being no gunfire. If someone was shooting from the 4th floor using a suppressor or silencer, the visible muzzle flash would be greatly reduced.
However, the biggest piece of evidence to dispel this is what about the windows everyone? The windows on the 4th floor are still intact. So unless there was another shooter on the 4th floor using magic bullets that went through the glass windows without breaking them or ever leaving a mark. There is no way there was another person firing from the fourth floor.
At the end of the day when I reviewed the entire video and audio, isolating the sound waves, I was unable to pick up any evidence that would suggest more than one firearm was ever being fired at the same time.
Now, can I say 100% there wasn’t more than one shooter? No. However, I can say with a high degree of certainty there was never more than one gun being fired at the same time.
Coming up I’ll share what all I was able to find out about the scene inside the shooter’s hotel suite. Also, I’ll share how I pieced together the leaked images from inside the room to create one fluid model. Additionally, I’ll explain why no one saw any muzzle flashes from the 32nd floor. Lastly, explain the mystery some people have expressed over how it appears like one of the rifles was placed across the shooter’s leg after he was already dead.